No, not Moon Beam.
Instead, remember those old steam engines, lawn mowers and tractors? They had a “governor." If the engine spun too fast, little gizmos were thrown out, a trigger activated, and the engine prevented from further gain. Webster: “An attachment to a machine designed to afford automatic ...limitation of speed or power...such an attachment activated by the centrifugal force of whirling weights opposed by gravity or by springs.”
Well folks, we’ve got our very own governor in the form of Iranian / Saudi tension.
It’s not news any longer that the US economy is at escape speed. Our clients were aware before most others.
Now the market crowd are all believers. Encouraged by forecasters and by evidence, the market crowd, after a 180, are rushing past even us, charging to the surface, ignoring the osprey’s shadow.
This bunch dismissed turmoil in the Mid East as a blip, encouraged to do so by authority figures (which a crowd can never do without). One of these was Bernanke.
Background: The market consensus is set by a few dozen major US firms. Investors and traders don’t make it up - it’s fed to them. And it is this consensus of future economic reality which is priced in at any given moment (equity, fixed income). All we have to do is to identify the flaw, if any to this consensus, and we become the owners of the knowledge of future price change. Simple and effective.
Forecasters went to 3% for US GDP and were about to go to 3.50% or higher. This is what they were thinking in February and most of March. And all of this bunch had dismissed crude as a retardant because their formulas and idols told them to do so.
Their formulas did not account for the Middle Eastern quest for human dignity.
Now, forecasters are beginning to worry. They saw yesterday what an all time high for Brent (in Sterling terms) did to UK consumer psychology. As Grandma Craven used to say, “It knocked it a winding.”
On Mar/23 we predicted that forecasters will begin to reduce their estimates for 2011 GDP in the near term, preparing our clients for this reality up front. Look for headlines to support this anchor in the days ahead.
Robert Craven
Instead, remember those old steam engines, lawn mowers and tractors? They had a “governor." If the engine spun too fast, little gizmos were thrown out, a trigger activated, and the engine prevented from further gain. Webster: “An attachment to a machine designed to afford automatic ...limitation of speed or power...such an attachment activated by the centrifugal force of whirling weights opposed by gravity or by springs.”
Well folks, we’ve got our very own governor in the form of Iranian / Saudi tension.
It’s not news any longer that the US economy is at escape speed. Our clients were aware before most others.
Now the market crowd are all believers. Encouraged by forecasters and by evidence, the market crowd, after a 180, are rushing past even us, charging to the surface, ignoring the osprey’s shadow.
This bunch dismissed turmoil in the Mid East as a blip, encouraged to do so by authority figures (which a crowd can never do without). One of these was Bernanke.
Background: The market consensus is set by a few dozen major US firms. Investors and traders don’t make it up - it’s fed to them. And it is this consensus of future economic reality which is priced in at any given moment (equity, fixed income). All we have to do is to identify the flaw, if any to this consensus, and we become the owners of the knowledge of future price change. Simple and effective.
Forecasters went to 3% for US GDP and were about to go to 3.50% or higher. This is what they were thinking in February and most of March. And all of this bunch had dismissed crude as a retardant because their formulas and idols told them to do so.
Their formulas did not account for the Middle Eastern quest for human dignity.
Now, forecasters are beginning to worry. They saw yesterday what an all time high for Brent (in Sterling terms) did to UK consumer psychology. As Grandma Craven used to say, “It knocked it a winding.”
On Mar/23 we predicted that forecasters will begin to reduce their estimates for 2011 GDP in the near term, preparing our clients for this reality up front. Look for headlines to support this anchor in the days ahead.
Robert Craven
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